Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 4.421976 5.236691 6.139549 7.211475 8.446457 9.821633 11.465700
2025-06-01 3.064672 4.119211 5.419916 7.129062 9.300945 11.952590 15.416786
2025-06-08 2.238165 3.358975 4.874449 7.042564 10.027930 13.951759 19.448015
2025-06-15 1.834698 3.024197 4.761515 7.427292 11.343772 16.801738 24.874877
2025-06-22 1.466356 2.636483 4.470572 7.467991 12.132037 18.972565 29.577061
2025-06-29 1.187996 2.315785 4.202138 7.466146 12.812182 21.014055 34.259967
2025-07-06 0.971974 2.045314 3.953185 7.433200 13.405681 22.947966 38.931521
2025-07-13 0.895947 2.009214 4.089758 8.051183 15.110380 26.759404 46.842827
2025-07-20 0.786264 1.881547 4.034900 8.314830 16.230900 29.714980 53.624832
2025-07-27 0.700850 1.783353 4.015098 8.630989 17.465361 32.954743 61.127633
2025-08-03 0.599321 1.625891 3.848856 8.637767 18.126512 35.253713 67.207159
2025-08-10 0.490795 1.425239 3.556034 8.345268 18.179909 36.466962 71.476609
2025-08-17 0.390697 1.221816 3.225532 7.937327 17.984622 37.257005 75.156135
2025-08-24 0.327938 1.098541 3.053832 7.844351 18.411676 39.251459 81.218728
2025-08-31 0.275636 0.989012 2.893009 7.749049 18.818897 41.240260 87.431411
2025-09-07 0.255541 0.968825 2.950611 8.167337 20.368476 45.598011 98.494502
2025-09-14 0.222014 0.896675 2.858849 8.211466 21.095369 48.357632 106.638029
2025-09-21 0.191748 0.825587 2.755411 8.209405 21.713992 50.940991 114.615268
2025-09-28 0.164903 0.757393 2.645874 8.173544 22.246696 53.382635 122.476121
2025-10-05 0.161917 0.776549 2.796101 8.845629 24.530529 59.733964 138.792420
2025-10-12 0.148275 0.750327 2.804022 9.132209 25.907172 64.217187 151.501640
2025-10-19 0.137290 0.731344 2.831071 9.475760 27.459090 69.199612 165.582376
2025-10-26 0.120205 0.680419 2.744766 9.483124 28.162851 72.335677 175.913071